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Canada sets a Target of 1 Million Immigrants in the Next Two Years

May 2018, 08
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Canada has an immigration target of 3, 40,000 in 2020, of which 58%, will be covered by using the economic immigration programs.

In 2036, the five metropolitan areas having a high proportion of immigrants would be Toronto (in the range of 46.0% to 52.8%), Vancouver (in the range of 42.1% to 48.5%), Calgary (in the range of 32.7% to 40.8%), Montreal (in the range of 28.4% to 34.2%) and Winnipeg (in the range of 29.2% to 40.5%). Furthermore nearly 50% immigrants would originate from Asia in 2036.

The recent trends

Moreover, in case there is a continuation of the recent trends, and also if the nature of immigration does not change in the period of the projection, at the beginning of 2036 the immigrant population of Asian-born Canadians would be between 55.7% and 57.9%. In 2011 it was 44.8%.

On the other hand, the proportion of European immigrants is likely to decline from 31.6% in 2011 to a range of 15.4% to 17.8% in 2036.

The forecasts regarding in the population in the past assumed that there will be a low-immigration of around 280,000. This represents the rate of immigration of 8.0 immigrants for a population of 1000. This will decrease to 5.0 immigrants for a population of 1000 in 2022,. This will be constant afterwards.

Assumption of immigration

The medium range assumption of immigration was 300,000 immigrants at the rate of 8.3 for a population of 1000 and subsequently the rate is constant till the projection ends.

The Highest range of immigration was 305,000 immigrants at the rate of 8.4 for a population of 1000. Moreover,   it increases progressively to 10.0 immigrants for a population of 1000 by 2022 and remains constant afterwards. In the new plan there are 13.0 immigrants for a population of 1000 in 2020.

The future scenario

As a result, the estimated population of Canada will equal Spain in 2032, Italy in 2050 and finally Germany in 2070. Presently, Canada has higher per capital income in comparison to Germany. Moreover, it is ten percent higher in comparison to France and the UK. The projection of population in USA in 2050 is 438 million. Furthermore, Canada will have barely one eighth of the population in USA in 2050. Many long term estimates of the GDP in the world give no consideration to the increase in Canadian population. It will touch $4 to 4.5 trillion in GDP and have a rank of 11th/ 12th.

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